The Flaw of Averages

The Flaw of AveragesDiscover 'The Flaw of Averages', an essential read for entrepreneurs and decision makers navigating the complexities of uncertainty and risk in business. This insightful book, authored by Sam Savage, reveals the pitfalls of relying on average figures when making critical financial decisionswhether forecasting sales, budgeting for costs, or evaluating stock prices. In a world where uncertainty reigns supreme, understanding the flaws in traditional

Discover 'The Flaw of Averages', an essential read for entrepreneurs and decision-makers navigating the complexities of uncertainty and risk in business. This insightful book, authored by Sam Savage, reveals the pitfalls of relying on average figures when making critical financial decisions—whether forecasting sales, budgeting for costs, or evaluating stock prices. In a world where uncertainty reigns supreme, understanding the flaws in traditional statistical methods can greatly impact your personal and corporate strategies.

This 416-page book, published in 2012 by John Wiley & Sons Inc, employs accessible language to demystify intricate concepts, making it an invaluable resource for both seasoned professionals and curious learners. Savage’s unique approach includes engaging animations and simulations through a supporting website, enhancing reader comprehension and retention.

Delve into thought-provoking topics such as healthcare statistics, financial analysis, and even gender differences explored through the lens of the Central Limit Theorem. With 'The Flaw of Averages', you’ll be equipped to confront the myriad uncertainties that decorate our lives today.

Order now and take the first step towards enhancing your decision-making skills in business and beyond! Note: Shipping for this item is free. Please allow up to 6 weeks for delivery. Once your order is placed, it cannot be cancelled.

Note: Shipping for this item is free. Please allow up to 6 weeks for delivery. Once your order is placed, it cannot be cancelled.

Condition: BRAND NEW
ISBN: 9781118073759
Year: 2012
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc (US)
Pages: 416


Description:
A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a
major financial impact.


As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often
ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we
base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they
be next month?s sales, next year?s costs, or
tomorrow?s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam
Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult
subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing
risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans
based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as
diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate
change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he
bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.


Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts
in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site
contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the
seat of the reader?s intellect to the seat of their
pants.


The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs
a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future
quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the
emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem
though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a
single spreadsheet cell.


Praise for The Flaw of Averages


?Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we
make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam
Savage?s lively and engaging bo